Will Social Security Run Out: Your Retirement Sidekick, Not Its Savior (My S.O.S. Plan)

With everything int he news today about cuts, how can you not wonder. Will social security run out? Will it be there when I retire?

Let’s get straight to it: One of my clients recently gasped when I mentioned that she might lose over a fifth of her expected benefits—not decades from now, but possibly before she even hits 60.

If Washington keeps kicking the can down the road, that’s a reality. Not a scare tactic; it’s based on the Social Security Administration’s (SSA) own projections.

For almost 30 years, I’ve had countless conversations, just like the one with my client recently. After watching the March 2025 Congressional hearing on retirement solvency, one client messaged me: ‘Should I be worried about my Social Security?’ That moment sparked a deeper conversation about how media noise can cloud planning.

One where Social Security plays a crucial, but supporting, role. This isn’t just about numbers; it’s about ensuring your good monthly retirement income is built on a rock-solid foundation, not wishful thinking.

Forget the political noise for a moment. My job has always been to help people plan for financial reality, not political promises. And the reality is, relying on Social Security to be the CEO of your retirement plan is a gamble.

Curious About Your Own Social Security Future? Estimate Your Benefits Now!

With ongoing discussions about the future of Social Security, it’s natural to wonder what your own retirement benefits might look like. Will they be there? How much can you expect?

Our interactive Social Security Estimator below can help you get a clearer picture by projecting your potential monthly benefits at different claiming ages (62, your Full Retirement Age, and 70) and even lets you see how hypothetical future reductions could impact those figures.

Understanding these potential Social Security benefit amounts is a crucial first step in comprehensive retirement planning. While this estimator provides valuable insights based on current rules and your inputs, remember that these are projections. For the most accurate figures based on your complete earnings history, always consult your official account at SSA.gov.

Next Steps for Your Retirement Planning:

Want to see how long your entire retirement portfolio might last? Try our Retirement Portfolio Longevity Calculator.

Consider how these estimated Social Security benefits fit into your overall retirement income strategy. Do you have other savings like a 401(k) or IRA? Explore our 403(b) Retirement Savings Calculator if applicable.

The Hard Truth: Why Your Social Security Check Might Be Smaller Than You Think

The official reports aren’t bedtime stories; they’re financial forecasts we ignore at our peril. The 2024 SSA Trustees Report still points to the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) Trust Fund running low around 2033. If Congress doesn’t act, the system could then only pay out about 79% of promised benefits from ongoing tax revenue.

Think about that: a one-fifth cut, just like that.

It’s no wonder the latest EBRI 2025 Retirement Confidence Survey will likely show what I see daily: while many hope for Social Security, only about two thirds of workers fully trust future benefits will match today’s. Economist Laurence Kotlikoff has long warned about the program’s massive long-term fiscal imbalance. The point isn’t to cause panic, but to spur prudent basic financial planning.

Social Security was conceived as a safety net, not the whole hammock. Think of Social Security more like the seatbelt, not the engine, that keeps your retirement vehicle safe.

My “S.O.S.” Framework for Social Security: Secure, Optimize, Stress-Test

Instead of crossing your fingers, let’s build a robust strategy. This is the framework I’ve used for years to help clients navigate Social Security uncertainty.

S – Secure Your Floor: Making Social Security a Reliable (Though Potentially Smaller) Sidekick

The first step is to ensure your absolute essential living expenses in retirement are covered by income sources you can count on. This is your “income floor.” If your projected Social Security benefit (perhaps prudently reduced by 20% in your own calculations) plus any pensions don’t cover these non-negotiables (housing, food, basic healthcare), then you must look at your own savings to fill that gap.

This might mean earmarking a portion of your retirement savings to create a reliable income stream, perhaps through a conservative withdrawal strategy or even considering a Single Premium Immediate Annuity (SPIA) for a portion of your needs.

A SPIA can turn a lump sum into a guaranteed lifelong paycheck. For some of my more risk-averse clients, knowing their essential bills were covered, regardless of Social Security’s future, was the key to sleeping at night. It makes Social Security the helpful sidekick—think Robin, not Batman—to your personal savings.

A Contrarian Thought: When Claiming Early Might Actually Pay

Everyone preaches “delay, delay, delay” Social Security. And for many, that is the best move. But I had a client, “Frank,” who had a serious health diagnosis and a shorter life expectancy. For him, claiming benefits earlier, even at a reduced rate, and investing them conservatively in T-bills actually resulted in more total lifetime benefits for his family than if he’d delayed and passed away before breaking even.

It’s a niche situation, but it underscores that your specific circumstances always trump generic rules. We ran the numbers, and the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) for his specific scenario favored early claiming.

O – Optimize Your Benefits & Taxes: Smart Moves Before and After You Claim)

You still have considerable control over maximizing what you get from Social Security and minimizing its tax bite.

Delay With Purpose

Delaying benefits until age 70 boosts your payout by 8% annually. That can add up to tens of thousands in retirement. But the key question is, how do you survive until then?

That’s where the retirement bridge strategy comes in. Take funds from IRAs or taxable accounts to cover the gap. I had a client, Annette age 62, who withdrew $40,000/year from her Roth IRA between 62 and 70, delaying Social Security and ending up with $700 more per month for life.

Roth Conversion: The golden gap years & why early retirement is your tax planning jackpot

The years between retirement and age 73 (when RMDs typically start from traditional IRAs/401(k)s) are golden for tax planning. If your income is lower, strategically converting pre-tax retirement funds to Roth accounts can be a brilliant move.

For example, if you’re in the 12% federal tax bracket, converting enough to stay within the top of the 22% bracket (using 2025 thresholds as a guide) could save you thousands in future taxes on Social Security benefits and avoid higher IRMAA surcharges for Medicare.

I had a client, “Maria,” who, by doing this for five years, ensured almost all her Social Security would be tax-free and kept her Medicare premiums from ballooning. Using a Roth conversion calculator can help you visualize this.

Managing IRMAA (Income-Related Monthly Adjustment Amount): 

Be aware that higher incomes in retirement can trigger these surcharges on your Medicare Part B and Part D premiums. [Source: Medicare Rights Center]. Strategic withdrawals and Roth conversions can help manage the income that SSA looks at to determine these. It’s about playing smart defense.

S – Stress-Test for Longevity & Future Shocks: What if Congress Still Doesn’t Act? )

Hope is not a strategy. Your plan needs to be resilient.

Model the Cut: 
In your own projections, run a scenario where your Social Security benefits are 21% lower than your statement projects. Can your retirement income plan still meet your essential needs? If not, what levers (savings, spending, work longevity) need to adjust now?

Take Linda, a 58-year-old small business owner in Ohio. When I walked her through a model with a 21% Social Security cut, she didn’t panic. She pulled out a yellow notepad and said, ‘Okay, what’s step one?’ That’s when we created a backup income stream using her SEP IRA.

The Medicare Premium Creep: 
Remember, the standard Medicare Part B premium for 2025 is $185, with a deductible of $257. These costs have historically outpaced general inflation. Factor in realistic healthcare inflation, not just general CPI, because this “drag” can eat up a significant portion of any Social Security COLA.

My Personal Prediction (Educated Guess!): 

I don’t have a crystal ball, but here’s my gut: Congress won’t let benefits collapse, but changes are coming. Expect:

• A higher income cap for payroll taxes
• A gradual bump in Full Retirement Age (probably to 68 or 69)
• Slight benefit formula tweaks for high earners

That’s why I tell clients: plan for less, and if we get lucky, you’ll just have more wiggle room.

Gut-Check Time: Could Your Retirement Survive a Social Security Squeeze?

Stop and ask yourself these questions right now:

1. If my Social Security check was 20% smaller starting tomorrow, would my essential bills still get paid without raiding my growth investments?
2. Have I factored in rising Medicare premiums potentially eating most of my Social Security COLA in future years?
3. Are my asset allocation models designed to generate enough growth to offset a potentially less generous Social Security system over a 20-30 year retirement?

If the answers make you queasy, good. That’s your financial instincts telling you it’s time for action, not complacency.

My Final Word: Take Control – Make Social Security Work for Your Plan, Not the Other Way Around

Social Security is a complex system with an uncertain future, but that doesn’t mean you’re powerless. By understanding the realities, applying smart strategies like the S.O.S. framework, and focusing on what you can control. Your savings, your investment strategy, your tax planning – you can build a retirement plan where Social Security is a helpful partner, not the unpredictable CEO.

Your first step? Get your latest estimate from the SSA website, then mentally (or on a spreadsheet) apply a 20% reduction. Does your overall financial picture still look comfortable?

Your Action Plan

1. Pull your Social Security estimate from SSA.gov.
2. Subtract 20%. How does your plan look now?
3. List your non-negotiable monthly expenses.
4. Review your investment and tax strategies.

If that exercise leaves you queasy, you’re not failing. You’re facing the truth—and that’s the first step to winning retirement on your terms.

Michael Ryan’s Straight Answers: Social Security FAQs

Will Congress really let the Social Security trust fund run dry and slash benefits by 20%?

My Take: Historically, Congress has always acted, often at the 11th hour, to shore up Social Security. A 20%+ cut for tens of millions of seniors would be political dynamite. However, the types of fixes—raising taxes, increasing retirement age, tweaking benefit formulas—are always contentious.

It’s prudent to plan for some reduction or less favorable terms than current law, rather than banking on a full, last-minute bailout with no changes.

What’s the single biggest mistake people make with Social Security planning in your experience?

My Take: Two tie for first. One, overestimating its role and under-saving elsewhere. Two, claiming too early without understanding the massive, permanent increase in lifetime benefits that delaying until age 70 can provide for many. It’s often leaving tens, even hundreds, of thousands of dollars on the table.

Many don’t realize just how much you might need to save, like $2 million dollars, if other income sources are small.

If I delay Social Security, where do I get income to live on until age 70?

My Take: That’s the crux of the “retirement bridge” strategy. You’d use funds from your 401(k)s, IRAs, or taxable brokerage accounts. This often works best if those accounts are substantial, or if you continue to work part-time. It also ties into the Roth conversion strategy – using pre-tax funds for living expenses while converting other pre-tax funds to Roth in those lower-income bridge years.

You need to calculate if the lifetime gain from a higher Social Security benefit outweighs the cost of drawing down your portfolio earlier. This is where an early retirement calculator can help model different scenarios.

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Note: The content provided in this article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial or legal advice. Consult with a professional advisor or accountant for personalized guidance.